Morocco is gradually tackling inflation, a major political and public debate since 2021, when inflation exceeded 6%. Public institutions are intensifying their efforts to bring inflation down to zero.
The African Development Bank forecasts a reduction in the budget deficit to 4.4% of GDP and a significant decrease in inflation in 2024 and 2025, attributing these forecasts to lower global commodity prices.
This aligns with reports from other national and international economic institutions. For example, Bank Al-Maghrib expects inflation to stabilize at 2.2% in 2024.
Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch recently reported that Morocco has reduced inflation to 1.2%, a figure supported by the High Commission for Planning’s observations on inflation stability.
Zakaria Verano, an economist at Mohammed V University in Rabat, noted that the African Development Bank’s forecast is confirmed by national institutions, including the High Commission for Planning, which expects a decline in inflation due to falling global commodity prices, as measured by the FAO index.
Verano pointed to the drop in energy prices, with international petroleum organizations projecting annual averages not exceeding $85, and the managed impact of global issues such as the Red Sea crisis and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Verano also praised Morocco’s monetary policy, particularly the interest rate hikes at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, which contributed to the decline in inflation. Additionally, financial policy measures supporting various sectors have played a role.
Conversely, economic analyst Rachid Sari questioned the link between lower inflation and global food prices, pointing to persistent constraints such as the Middle East crisis and drought conditions affecting global food prices.
While overall inflation in Morocco remains low, agricultural inflation is still high, and national fuel prices, although stable, are higher than before. Sari emphasized the importance of a comprehensive view beyond food prices, noting that the insights from the Bank of Morocco are more aligned with national conditions than the projections of the African Development Bank.
HESPRESS ENGLISH
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